December 29, 2015 at 4:00 pm #17837JeffGuest
I like your plan. I’ve following your posts each month and reading them. I’ve been in the C fund for some time now. I have 50% S 40% C and 10% I. I will probably follow your plan into the C fund. Except I’ll leave my I fund at 10%. Since I’ve been following your investment strategy my TSP has done quite well. Thank you for the posts.December 29, 2015 at 5:43 pm #17838JeffGuest
All the reading I have been doing lately indicates both Europe & Japan should show modest growth in the coming year. I’m thinking more than 10% allocation to the I fund might be warrante .
Thoughts?December 29, 2015 at 6:39 pm #17839JesseGuest
My thoughts are you should go 15 I and you should currently be 30 C and 55 SDecember 31, 2015 at 3:23 am #17850
It really depends on your risk tolerance. Personally I think under $24/share for I fund is worth increasing your position, maybe up to $24.50 per share but over $25 seems a little too risky for me at the moment given its volatility.
iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EFA) – Benchmark Fact Sheet https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/efa-ishares-msci-eafe-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf
Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) – Japan
FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) – UK
CAC 40 (INDEXEURO:PX1) – France
SMI® PR (INDEXSWX:SMI) – Swiss
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX (INDEXDB:DAX) – Germany
IBEX 35 (INDEXBME:IB) – Spain
HANG SENG INDEX (INDEXHANGSENG:HSI) – Hong Kong
OMX Stockholm 30 Index (INDEXNASDAQ:OMXS30) – Sweden
AEX-INDEX (INDEXEURO:AEX) – Netherlands
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1451595600000&chddm=261&cmpto=NYSEARCA:EFA;INDEXBME:IB;INDEXHANGSENG:HSI;INDEXNASDAQ:OMXS30;INDEXEURO:AEX&cmptdms=0;1;1;0;1&q=NYSEARCA:EFA,INDEXBME:IB,INDEXHANGSENG:HSI,INDEXNASDAQ:OMXS30,INDEXEURO:AEX&ntsp=0&ei=XtyEVrHUMomrjAGW7amQAwDecember 31, 2015 at 12:27 pm #17852akibaParticipant
I am a newb to this community but I’m glad I’m finally starting to pay more attention to my TSP allocations. Thanks to TS for this site and his advice.
Regarding the recent suggestion to start switching from S to C, I was curious about a couple of things. I’ve read that historically the S fund does well in January. And I’m getting trigger emails from a few people I follow that they are switching to F fund 100% now. That sounds like the “seasonal” strategy I have read about. Those folks shelter in F or G through Jan and feb then plunge back into stocks around March,then back into bonds in June to avoid the late summer/early fall crashes like in 2015. They claim 16% average returns over the last 20 years. For my own part, I’m 60% S and 40% C right now and I’m reluctant to lock in all my losses in S in 2015 by shifting out right now.
What do you all think?
-AkibaDecember 31, 2015 at 3:44 pm #17853JeffGuest
Thanks for the advice on the I fund. I got two replies saying to increase to 15%. I’m not afraid of risk to I’ll go 15%.
As far as this web site I’ve learned more about investing here than anywhere else, as well as the books that have been recommended, and yes I’ve read them all as well as a few others.
My question is I just heard on FOX business, that small cap stocks are supposed to do good this year. I know TV may not be the best place for investment advice but…
Would it be a bad idea to stay in the S fund longer than April?December 31, 2015 at 7:35 pm #17854
S Fund benchmark is the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (DWCPF) http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_US_Completion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf that includes Total US Market minus the S&P 500. Per fact sheet, it includes 3455 stocks and market capitalization ranges from 0 to 27.9 Billion. Since S&P 500 has both large & mid cap stocks, the stocks in the S Fund would be both Small & Mid Cap stocks, plus Large Caps that don’t meet the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500. In other words, is not only made up of Small Cap Stocks.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/allcapfund.asp#ixzz1tdLKqUwv Good summary of sizes
http://www.russell.com/documents/indexes/us-index-comparison.pdf Interesting comparison between Russell & S&P Indexes that show how some overlap each other. The Russell 2000 is a small cap index but there is no TSP equivalent.
The predictions of 13 “experts” for the S&P 500 in 2015 ranged from $2100 w/ $122 EPS to $2325 w/ $129 EPS http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-2015-sp-500-forecasts-2015-1 2016 Targets for the S&P are generally lower http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-forecast-for-2016-worse-than-last-year-2015-12-28December 31, 2015 at 8:00 pm #17855
I didn’t really answer your question…you can stay in the S Fund for as long as you desire, again it is a matter of risk tolerance and your time horizon. In the long run stocks are good investments and you can always ride out any downturn with enough time. (I just didn’t look at my TSP statements much in 2008 & 2009 with most of my TSP in S, C & I). Hopefully TS can warn us of any immanent contraction to prevent any overwhelming loss but there is always risk. Sometimes I think the stock market is like gambling, which I do enjoy. Personally, I am probably going to look at shifting a percentage of C & S funds to increase G/F funds early next year as I will be retiring soon. Everyone’s situation and expectations are different so it is up to you when to make the transition.December 31, 2015 at 11:13 pm #17856
Akiba, I have read some about investing based on seasonality but I don’t see how what you are describing would have been beneficial the last 5 years. Maybe selling S back in August before that drop would have been more effective.
There are different strategies people use but “Timing is Everything” as this article points out http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-profit-from-seasonal-patterns-in-stocks-2010-03-12
There are strategies based on the Presidential Election and terms that work well until they don’t and you come upon the exception:
Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles
The Recession of 2007–2009
Hindsight is always better than foresight. Not everyone here agrees on exactly where we are in the business cycle, just trying to do our best with the information we have to better manage our TSP funds. I’m not good with moving everything to a single fund on a single day and I don’t think I’m smart enough to time the market very well; so I’ll leave the seasonality trades to others.
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