How Low Can it Go? Shaking in My Boots(cont)

THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN ALLOCATION GUIDE Forums Message Board How Low Can it Go? Shaking in My Boots(cont)

This topic contains 22 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  12squared 3 years, 6 months ago.

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  • #18156

    Anne
    Participant

    As Shaking in My Boots rolled over to second page, I’m starting new thread so I see replies.

    I’m not worried about stock funds going to $0, but I don’t want to lose over half the current value either, as it did in what some refer to as “the Great Recession.” I can’t wrap my head around the relative strength between the funds as you do 12Squared.

    In March 2009, index values got down to 1996 values
    12-Oct-07 C=17.5300 S=21.2500 I=25.840 ~High Point
    17-Sep-08 C=13.2522 S=16.7243 I=17.8556 >20% Decrease
    09-Mar-09 C= 7.8673 S= 9.0631 I=10.2903 ~Low Point

    I have no idea how low this market could go…not getting any warm fuzzy feelings at the moment, although I keep hoping for a strong bounce or rally:)

    #18157

    Jes

    Anne

    If the stock funds go all the way down to zero (hypothetically), does that mean you would be out of money in the TSP? Would you please clear that up for me?

    #18158

    Bruin79

    Technically yes, since the shares you own at that time would be worth zero if you decided to redeem them or cash out you would get nothing but that would be like the very worst case scenario. I don’t think it ever would get down that low like individual stocks of a company could.

    #18159

    Anne
    Participant

    It will not happen. Hypothetically, We would be in a world of hurt! The financial system would be in ruins. TSP would have lots of shares of worthless stocks and the country would be bankrupt (technically we may qualify now). I don’t know if is theoretically possible to get to zero with index funds. Even in 1929 crash, there was still value.
    https://www3.nd.edu/~jstiver/FIN462/US%20Market%20Crashes.pdf

    If you bought those next to nothing stocks at the bottom and held them through recovery, you would have significantly greater gains than holding through the down turn.

    #18160

    Anne
    Participant

    Probably should have gone 0% C/S/I last IFT looking at markets today. It’s all good, G&F are positive. Any idea what would happen to G&F if FED went to negative interest rates?

    #18161

    Bruin79

    That is a good question about the G Fund, supposedly the G Fund will not be in the negative at anytime, you might get zero gains if it comes to that but you are not suppose to loose your principal at all, F Fund is a different situation which you can go into the negative.

    #18162

    12squared
    Participant

    The trick is recognizing the bottom – without benefit of hindsight. I moved my last 11% from G into S on Jan 13 & 19 when there was an upturn from an apparent bottom, only to have it drop 3% since then. On the positive note, I bought in at 20% below the peak price of June 2015.

    #18163

    Kristopher

    I can predict the up turn! It will be when I put all my money into G and F.

    #18164

    Damian
    Participant

    Hi everyone. So yeah, I just read through the site and change my TSP allocations to what was recommended for February. Was that a bad idea considering what is happening or should I take the long view like the site suggests?

    Thanks

    Damian

    #18166

    Kristopher

    Well I did it and finally pulled the trigger. I went from 65%-C, 35%-S to 50%-F, 50%-C. I should have done it much earlier but like everyone else I never thought the market would just keep dropping. There is just so much negative news that I dont see any kind of bounce in the near future.

    But on the good side since I did just switch the market WILL bounce up next week for the people who held out in C and S.

    #18171

    Anne
    Participant

    Damian…it depends on your situation and your risk tolerance. I’m close to retirement and a little skittish at the moment…current market is reminding me of 2008.

    Kristopher…Please give me advance warning of when you decide to go all G & F so I can get in on that upturn in the stock funds;)

    #18186

    Rolfeskj

    Well Yahoo headline “Wall Street rally?” All futures are up too. No I am second guessing my move from S to F last night. Any thoughts?

    #18188

    Anne
    Participant

    If you made the change last night, it will calculate at close tonight–which will be good for IFT–capturing any of todays increase in S & F will probably be down so you get more shares. If you change your mind before 12:00 EST, you can modify or cancel but the market can change between time IFT is made and close. I usually does the opposite of what I think it will

    #18189

    Anne
    Participant

    p.s. I think any bounce may be fleeting…not sure that we have seen bottom yet

    #18210

    Bren

    I’m 100%G and have been there since last October. Very happy with my decision at this point. I have the fedtrader.com to thank for that. This market is scary and IMHO going much, much lower. Dollar cost averaging and “thinking long term” are myths. There have been plenty of 6-10 year runs in history where the market would have yielded 0 return.

    #18219

    rfgiowa
    Participant

    Hi there. I have been a long time reader…but finally decided to blog.
    I also read TSP Tips. They have recommended 75% G and 25% F since January.

    #18220

    James

    First time posting, but long time observer… That said I gave in Thursday and told it to for F fund, I’m leaving my non-tsp stuff C fund equivalents and even doing some price averaging each time the market nose dives

    #18227

    Rolfeskj

    Anne,

    Remember when I said the markets would rebound as soon as I went from S fund to S fund. Well 3 days of big gains since I switched. Go figure.

    #18228

    Anne
    Participant

    Welcome to first time posters…you can continue to post. It seems awfully quiet around here.

    Rolfeskj,

    Most folks at TSPCenter.com are thinking about when to exit stock fund(s) before the market turns back down. I don’t know what to make of MACD, option expiration Friday, inverted head & shoulders and all the technical stuff they talk about. Lots of negatives in new/media but you can find stuff at both extremes. I’m not sure whether to move more to safety or save my IFT to move more to stock if market tanks. My indecisive nature and this crazy market keeps me from going 100% in either direction. I’m just confused.

    #18229

    Rolfeskj

    Anne,

    I honestly feeling okay being 50% C and 50% F. There is a reason the market dropped like it did. There may be a bounce but we are on a 7-8 year bull market so it is getting time for a slow down. The C fund has out preformed the S fund for the past two years. I just wish I did not lose 15%+ from my TSP before I got out of the S fund.

    #18234

    Anne
    Participant

    I know the feeling Rolfeskj. I have to go back to 1st Quarter of 2014 to show a paltry gain in my TSP. I’m now at 63.09% in G/F and can only use IFT’s to increase G next week.

    Stuff like this concerns me: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-smart-stock-market-analyst-151825510.html

    #18279

    Bruin79

    I sure wish the markets would have some consistencies for a few days at a time, instead of this one day up and next day down cycle for the past several months, like playing a slot machine, put in $100 and you bet $2 and pays you back $1.50 and next $2 bet pays you nothing and next bet pays you back your $2 while you $100 keeps dwindling, would be nice for the market to get some traction for awhile, my TSP is slowly dwindling at this rate.

    #18280

    12squared
    Participant

    I like to think of index funds like owning a house. Even if its market value goes down, I still have a place to live. I don’t worry when the value goes down if it was due to an overall market decline, as I figure people will eventually start buying again. Even if I sold it and bought another, I would be fine, as I would likely get a lower price on something else. I wouldn’t just sell, rent, then look to buy as housing prices went up.

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