August 31, 2018 at 7:49 am #30635
I started reading this website around the time of the last update… Bad timing it seems. I am hoping for some analysis in September to explain why returns on the I fund have not been as expected. Being 4 years to retirement, I only added 5% extra to the I fund leaving 75% of my equity allocation in the C and F. I am glad I did not move 50& of everything into the I fund.
So no I am not complaining about the advice but I am hoping for analysis instead of silence on why relative returns have not been as expected. I am sure longterm my intuition is not as valuable as informed advice from this website.September 6, 2018 at 7:32 am #30642
I am looking for an update soon too. Been following for 2-3 years and its always been good advice.
I went 50 C / 50 I at the beginning of this year and it has hurt my returns, alot. I have 20 years until I start pulling money out but cutting your return in half this year kind of sucked.
I am hoping the I fund will jump this year / next year when the trade wars, etc are done. It seems to have more potential for growth than the C or S fund as they are as high as they have ever been. But then again what do I know, I would have been all in S this year if I was any good.January 10, 2019 at 7:14 am #32722
It does appear this site is dead! Too bad since it always shared detailed analysis worth reading. I hope someone can pick it up from TSPaul and continue the work. TSPaul, thank you for your contributions and best of luck in whatever you’re now pursuing.January 14, 2019 at 9:06 pm #32724
Sites not dead, just dieing. TS Paul has a child a few months back so updates are very slow. He would update every month but now it’s only 2-3 times per year.
I also followed his advice on the I fund, 50/50 and it hurt my returns. I made a jump from I to S on 12/21/18 as the S fund dropped so much so fast. I figured it may pop up just as fast and I was very tired of the year long bad return on the I fund. Lucky for me the S fund has shot up since then. About another 5% on the S fund and I will have erased the year long loses I had in the I fund.January 14, 2019 at 9:08 pm #32725
Also I forgot to add TS Paul is a bit active on Twitter. Link on his this page somewhere. He said the update would be out last weekend…January 26, 2019 at 2:56 pm #32728
Hey–I like this site a lot and have been following it since its start. I’ve made good returns following its advice; however, like all things, you have to use your own judgment.
I like the idea of investments/the economy moving in cycles and investing based on fundamentals. That being, said, I didn’t follow the 50% move into the I fund and stayed mostly C and some in S. I figured w/ all the worries people had w/ international trade, it was too risky, and I was better off staying in C.
No one has a crystal ball, but take people’s advice, do some other reading, look at the fundamentals, and try not to time the market. But no one has all the answers–just strategies.January 30, 2019 at 8:45 pm #32733
Add a new baby to all the flack he got around the election and I’m not surprised he’s been radio silent for a bit.February 5, 2019 at 11:05 am #32734
I, too, am waiting in earnest for an update. But I also understand why there has been a delay. I would like to hope that we will see something soon after the SOTU tonight 🙂
In the meantime, I have revisited the old articles, blog posts, and fund updates to look for similarities to our current state of affairs. Based on my understanding of past patterns, I have shifted my allocations to 50/50 C and F funds.
YMMVApril 6, 2019 at 1:04 pm #35426
I too am missing the updates. This was my favorite TSP community. Im just glad I didn’t donate any money to the site as I was about to before TS Paul stopped updating. I sure hope he comes back. I personally have pulled completely out of the I fund back in Sept/ Oct I think and went 50/50 C and S fund and for the last month and a half have been 100% S Fund. A little risky,but that is what I am comfortable with at the moment as I believe strongly in our economy now and into the near future despite the bond yield curve turning. I think we are in different times, market wise, that no one has seen before. I am also ony 45 years old and have alot of time to recover any losses. Also if I do incur losses from a sudden downturn, I will be buying shares cheap and when the markets turn back around I will be all the better for it! For what it’s worth, I started my employment in the US Government three and a half years ago and rolled over my $382,000 401K from my civilian employer and grew it to, as of today, $502,000 in mostly the C and S fund. I have never put a single penny in the G or F fund and most likely never will. Just wanted to share my story for what it’s worth. I hope TS Paul is well and returns soon as I really enjoyed reading his take on things. Cheers!June 20, 2019 at 10:28 pm #35453
Hi TSPaul–just checking back in. Sure you are busy w/ the baby. Any thoughts on the new S&P 500 high? Irrational exuberance or are the market fundamentals still sound?
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