I would like to thank you for posting some wonderful and insightful information on this webpage that you have created. I had a question concerning your thoughts on the whole Crimea/Ukraine situation involving Russia. With talks of sanctions and market volatility, do you feel that this outside influence may have an influence on the business cycle as presently viewed? Thanks for your time, and keep up the good work.
Thanks for starting this thread. That is one of the topics I am planning to address if I ever get this month’s update out.
While new surprises from that region will certainly cause some market volatility, I don’t think it is likely to impact the business cycle as long as it is contained to a conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The only way I could see the US business cycle being altered is if a shooting war breaks out which draws in other countries in Western Europe, tanking the European economy and pulling ours down with it. I think the odds of that are extremely low and there would be a lot of intermediate steps between here and there.