Current Business Cycle Phase and TSP Allocation. This monthly update provides my current Thrift Savings Plan allocation and the reasoning behind that allocation strategy.
1. Introduction to the TSP Allocation Guide. Start here if this is your first visit to the site for an explanation of what this is all about.
2. Business Cycle Theory of TSP Investing. An overview of the business cycle, which investments do well during each phase, and how we apply that knowledge in our Thrift Savings Plan allocation strategy.
3. How to Determine the Current Phase of the Business Cycle. A discussion of the economic indicators used to determine which phase of the business cycle we are in and to forecast upcoming phase changes.
SEARCH THE TSP ALLOCATION GUIDE:
F Fund vs. G Fund in TSP Allocation. A discussion of the two funds and their very different roles in Thrift Savings Plan allocation strategy.
The TSP I Fund Role in TSP Allocation Strategy. Making the best of the Thrift Savings Plan’s international fund which is stuck in the 1970s.
Ignore the Noise: Discrete Events and Meaningless Market Volatility. A discussion of discrete events which cause temporary market movements, and why our Thrift Savings Plan strategy does not react to them.
Traditional vs. Roth TSP. Understanding which Thrift Savings Plan option is right for you.
Frequently Asked Questions. A compilation of answers to the most common TSP questions received.
Recommended Reading. Books I recommend for those who want to explore investing and personal finance in greater depth.
The TSP Loan Guide. A breakdown of when a Thrift Savings Plan loan makes sense, along with the basics of TSP loan eligibility and application.
- Part 1: When to consider a TSP Loan.
- Part 2: Pros and Cons of a TSP Loan.
- Part 3: TSP Loan Eligibility and Application.
Debunking the January Barometer Myth. The “January Barometer” accurately predicts negative market returns for the full year following a down January only 33% of the time.
Sell in May and Go Away. This old investing adage is not only bad advice, it can cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars in your Thrift Savings Plan.
Advanced Bond Fund Investing with the Thrift Savings Plan. A strategy for maximizing investments during periods when the TSP F Fund is favored.
A Look Forward at Thrift Savings Plan Investing in 2016. My forecast for 2016: the economy, risks, opportunities, and what it all means for my Thrift Savings Plan investing.
A Look Back at Thrift Savings Plan Investing in 2015. A post-mortem on 2015: what I got right and wrong, and whether I should have done anything differently.
December 2015 Update (in which I started transitioning to the TSP C Fund)
July 2015 Update (in which I changed my allocation to include the TSP I Fund)
A Look Forward at Thrift Savings Plan Investing in 2015. My forecast for 2015: the economy, risks, opportunities, and what it all means for my Thrift Savings Plan investing.
Investing Outside the TSP in 2015. Oil stocks, Europe and other speculation. The opportunities I see in individual stocks and sectors outside the Thrift Savings Plan in 2015.
A Look Back at 2014. How we did in 2014, whether we made the right decisions in our Thrift Savings Plan, and how we might do better if we find ourselves in similar circumstances in the future.
Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter to Shareholders. The 2013 yearly writeup from the Oracle of Omaha.
Shutdown and Debt Limit Update. Impacts of the current political theater on TSP allocation decisions.
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