Current Business Cycle Phase and TSP Allocation. This monthly update provides our current Thrift Savings Plan allocation and the reasoning behind that allocation strategy.
1. Introduction to the TSP Allocation Guide. Start here if this is your first visit to the site for an explanation of what this is all about.
2. Business Cycle Theory of TSP Investing. An overview of the business cycle, which investments do well during each phase, and how we apply this in our TSP allocation strategy.
3. How to Determine the Current Phase of the Business Cycle. A discussion of the economic indicators used to determine which phase of the business cycle we are in and to forecast upcoming phase changes.
F Fund vs. G Fund in TSP Allocation. A discussion of the two funds and their very different roles in TSP allocation strategy.
The TSP I Fund Role in TSP Allocation Strategy. Making the best of an international fund designed for the 1970s in today’s global economy.
Ignore the Noise: Discrete Events and Meaningless Market Volatility. A discussion of discrete events which cause temporary market movements, and why our strategy does not react to them.
Traditional vs. Roth TSP. Understanding which is right for you.
Frequently Asked Questions. A compilation of answers to the most common questions received.
Recommended Reading. Books I recommend for those who want to explore investing and personal finance in greater depth.
Advanced Bond Fund Investing with the Thrift Savings Plan. A strategy for maximizing investments during periods when the TSP F Fund is favored.
The TSP Loan Guide. A breakdown of when a TSP loan makes sense, along with the basics of TSP loan eligibility and application.
- Part 1: When to consider a TSP Loan.
- Part 2: Pros and Cons of a TSP Loan.
- Part 3: TSP Loan Eligibility and Application.
Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter to Shareholders. The yearly writeup from the Oracle of Omaha.
Debunking the January Barometer Myth. The “January Barometer” accurately predicts negative market returns for the full year following a down January only 33% of the time.
Shutdown and Debt Limit Update. Impacts of the current political theater on TSP allocation decisions.
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